Notes
Article history
The research reported in this issue of the journal was funded by the Health Services and Delivery Research programme as project number 11/46/21. The contractual start date was in August 2012. The report detailing the set up phase and initial outcomes began editorial review in July 2014 and was accepted for publication in October 2014. The authors have been wholly responsible for all data collection, analysis and interpretation, and for writing up their work. The Health Services and Delivery Research editors and production house have tried to ensure the accuracy of the authors’ report and would like to thank the reviewers for their constructive comments on the final report document. However, they do not accept liability for damages or losses arising from material published in this report. Should the study progress further, the full report will be published in the Health Services and Delivery Research journal.
Declared competing interests of authors
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© Queen’s Printer and Controller of HMSO 2014. This work was produced by Rubin et al. under the terms of a commissioning contract issued by the Secretary of State for Health. This issue may be freely reproduced for the purposes of private research and study and extracts (or indeed, the full report) may be included in professional journals provided that suitable acknowledgement is made and the reproduction is not associated with any form of advertising. Applications for commercial reproduction should be addressed to: NIHR Journals Library, National Institute for Health Research, Evaluation, Trials and Studies Coordinating Centre, Alpha House, University of Southampton Science Park, Southampton SO16 7NS, UK.
Chapter 1 Background
During a public health crisis, it is essential for policy-makers and public health experts to understand how members of the public are reacting. Having access to data on issues such as levels of worry among the community, the specific concerns or misperceptions that people have, the number of people who are aware of official recommendations and the number of people who are engaging in specific behaviours allows policy-makers to make evidence-based decisions, including what issues to focus on when communicating with the public and how best to frame their messages. 1,2
Obtaining these data during a crisis can be difficult. The speed with which crises develop and evolve, and the need to obtain data quickly make rapid turnaround telephone- or internet-based surveys the most pragmatic techniques to use. 1,2 Such surveys are now an accepted part of any fully formed public health response to a major crisis. 3–5 Most recently, 39 such surveys were commissioned by the English Department of Health during the 2009–10 influenza H1N1A (‘swine flu’) pandemic. 6,7 However, the use of such surveys is not straightforward, and experience with the pandemic highlighted four practical challenges that can hamper our ability to draw useful conclusions from them.
First, decisions must be made on exactly what to measure. This is easier said than done. For example, during the pandemic, initial messages to the public from the English Department of Health focused on the importance of washing hands with soap and water as an effective way of preventing the spread of flu. Their surveys, however, contained no questions concerning hand-washing behaviour until 3 months into the pandemic, limiting our ability to assess what impact the messages were having. Similarly, although the surveys included some items that were useful in predicting whether people would or would not engage in a given behaviour, many other variables that are specified by theories in health psychology and that might have proved useful in assessing why people were not taking up the recommended behaviours were not measured.
Second, the speed with which surveys need to be launched during a crisis allows little time for questions to be piloted. Ambiguous or confusingly worded items are sometimes used, leading to problems in the subsequent interpretation of the data. 6,8 Within the Department of Health surveys, for example, emotional response to the pandemic was assessed by a single question: ‘How worried, if at all, would you say you are now about the possibility of personally catching swine flu?’ This conflated feelings of worry with perceptions about the likelihood of catching flu.
Third, the reliability of survey questions often goes untested. Assessing whether changes in survey responses over time reveal genuine shifts in public sentiment or simply reflect random fluctuations in the data requires us to have tested the stability of responses over time before the crisis begins.
Fourth, the issue of non-response bias can be problematic. Many surveys that track changes over time during a crisis recruit a fresh sample of participants for each wave of data collection. This limits our ability to use the responses given in one wave to predict the responses given in the next. Using a panel design – with the same participants being questioned in each wave – is one way to overcome this. This approach is itself problematic, however. Participants who drop out between survey waves may be systematically different from those who continue to respond, leading to increasing bias in the data.
These problems are not insurmountable but are difficult to address once a crisis has begun. In the specific context of a pandemic, it has been recommended that public health agencies, policy-makers and researchers should develop a plan for future surveys now, rather than wait for the next pandemic to emerge. 5,9 In this paper, we report the results of a study that (1) identified key variables (both outcomes and their main predictors) to assess during a future pandemic; (2) tested and refined a set of questions with which to measure them; (3) assessed the reliability of the questions when used in a nationally representative telephone survey during a normal flu season; and (4) investigated the impact of non-responder bias on responses to a follow-up survey.
Chapter 2 Methods
Identification of key outcome and predictor variables
Outcome variables were selected through discussion with senior representatives from the following groups of end users of the survey data: the pandemic flu team for the English Department of Health; the two official advisory groups for the Department of Health and the UK Health Protection Agency (now part of Public Health England) that deal with the behavioural and communication aspects of pandemic planning; a team from the Health Protection Agency responsible for modelling the spread of a pandemic; and academic colleagues with a particular interest in pandemic flu planning. We also included lay members in this process to include a broader public perspective. A central component of this was identifying the range of behaviours that members of the public might be advised to engage in, or which they might engage in even in the absence of any official recommendation. We also sought to identify what other data would assist these groups in their work in the event of a pandemic.
Predictor variables for the behaviours that were selected were then chosen, based on their theoretical or empirically demonstrated relationship with the behaviour. The main theoretical model we used to guide the selection was Protection Motivation Theory,10 which proposes that people are more likely to engage in health-protective behaviours if they perceive that a health threat is likely to affect them; the consequences of the threat are severe; the protective behaviours are effective; any costs associated with the protective behaviours are small; and they have high ‘self-efficacy’ for the behaviour, i.e. if they are confident in their ability to perform the behaviour should they wish. We also used the results of two systematic reviews of factors associated with behaviour change during a pandemic to inform our selection. 11,12
Testing and refinement of questions
In order to measure each variable we adapted a previously published item or scale where it existed or generated new items where required. Because telephone surveys usually last for no longer than 15 minutes, we kept the number of items used for each scale to a minimum, and we used single items rather than scales where possible. 13 Each item or scale was reviewed by the research team to rectify any obvious problems, such as the use of double-negatives. Where applicable, items were phrased to allow closed responses (‘yes/no,’ ‘true/false’ or ‘strongly agree/agree/neither agree nor disagree/disagree/strongly disagree’) or open-ended responses, which were coded into closed categories by an interviewer.
We tested the 208 items generated in this way for their comprehensibility, face validity and usability in three rounds of interviews (n = 30, n = 20 and n = 28). Participants aged ≥ 18 years and who spoke English were recruited by e-mail from a university database of volunteers drawn from the general population. Demographic characteristics for the participants are given in Table 1. We did not attempt to obtain a demographically representative sample for these interviews. Instead, participants were sought who would allow us to test our questions with people from different sections of society.
Variable | Sample characteristics |
---|---|
Sex | Female: 57 (73.1%) Male: 21 (26.9%) |
Age, years | Median: 30 (range 19–83) |
Ethnicity | White British: 45 (57.7%) White non-British: 8 (10.3%) Black or black British: 7 (9.0%) Indian: 4 (5.1%) Chinese: 4 (5.1%) Mixed: 4 (5.1%) Bangladeshi: 2 (2.6%) Other ethnicity: 1 (1.3%) No response: 3 (3.8%) |
Gross household income, £ | < 30,000: 37 (47.4%) > 30,000: 32 (41.0%) No response: 9 (11.5%) |
Long-lasting illness of disability or infirmity | No long-lasting illness or disability: 55 (70.5%) Presence of long-lasting illness or disability: 19 (24.4%) No response: 4 (5.1%) |
Employment status | Working ≥ 30 hours per week: 33 (42.3%) Working 8–29 hours per week: 19 (24.4%) Not working (student): 8 (10.3%) Not working (unemployed): 5 (6.4%) Not working (retired): 4 (5.1%) Not working (other): 4 (5.1%) Not working (housewife/househusband): 3 (3.9%) No response: 2 (2.5%) |
Education | A-level or lower: 19 (24.4%) BSc/BA: 31 (39.7%) Postgraduate degree: 21 (26.9%) Other/still studying: 4 (5.1%) No response: 3 (3.8%) |
Parental status | Parents of children aged < 17 years: 7 (9.0%) Not parents of children aged < 17 years: 70 (89.7%) No response: 1 (1.3%) |
Consenting participants were read each item, in turn, and asked to provide their answer to it, and explain the reasoning for their answer. Where required, we also asked them to explain what they believed the question was asking and/or to suggest an alternative wording. The interviews were conducted over the telephone to reflect the way that our items would be used in practice during a pandemic. We reworded items identified as difficult to understand or answer by two or more participants, and retested them in a subsequent round of interviews. These interviews, and the surveys that followed, were approved by King’s College London’s Psychiatry, Nursing and Midwifery Research Ethics Subcommittee (20 July 2012, reference PNM11/12–139).
Reliability of questions
Between 16 and 30 January 2013 (time 1), Ipsos MORI, a UK-based market research organisation, carried out a telephone survey in England, Scotland and Wales, using random-digit dialling of landline telephone numbers. Proportional quota sampling ensured that respondents were demographically representative of the general population, with quotas derived from the most recent Census data and based on age, sex, work status, region and social grade. Respondents were required to be ≥ 16 years and to speak English. Participants were initially asked for consent to take part in a survey on ‘issues currently facing the UK’ and were informed that the survey related to flu only after initial consent was obtained. Surveying continued until at least 1067 people had been interviewed. This allows any future prevalence estimates made from the survey data to be made with a confidence interval of ± 3%. 14 The design was identical to that used for the national surveys conducted by the Department of Health during the 2009–10 pandemic. 6
Out of 17,044 calls made by Ipsos MORI which resulted in contact with someone whose demographic quota had not already been filled, 15,684 (92.0%) were to people who declined to participate, 273 (1.6%) were to people who asked the interviewer to call back later but who subsequently failed to keep their appointment, seven (< 0.1%) began their interview but did not complete it and 1080 (6.3%) completed it in full. This rate is usual for this type of survey and similar to the rates achieved in Great Britain for the national pandemic flu telephone surveys. 6 The demographic characteristics of the sample are given in Table 2.
Variable | Variable levels | No. (%) at time 1 | No. (%) at time 2b |
---|---|---|---|
Sex | Male | 603 (55.8) | 356 (57.3) |
Female | 477 (44.2) | 265 (42.7) | |
Age, years | 18–24 | 85 (8.2) | 39 (6.5) |
25–34 | 154 (14.8) | 79 (13.2) | |
35–54 | 399 (38.3) | 233 (38.8) | |
55–64 | 165 (15.9) | 107 (17.8) | |
> 64 | 238 (22.9) | 142 (23.7) | |
Working status | Not working | 458 (42.5) | 276 (44.5) |
Working full or part time | 619 (57.5) | 344 (55.5) | |
Household income, £ | < 30,000 | 448 (49.3) | 272 (50.1) |
> 30,000 | 460 (50.7) | 271 (49.9) | |
Highest qualification | None | 108 (10.3) | 65 (10.7) |
GCSE or equivalent | 226 (21.6) | 130 (21.3) | |
A-level or equivalent | 171 (16.4) | 91 (14.9) | |
Degree or higher | 418 (40.0) | 246 (40.4) | |
Other | 121 (11.5) | 77 (12.6) | |
Ethnicity | White | 986 (92.2) | 575 (93.3) |
Other ethnic background | 83 (7.8) | 41 (6.7) | |
Chronic illness | Present | 358 (33.6) | 216 (35.4) |
Absent | 707 (66.4) | 395 (64.6) | |
Children aged ≤ 18 years | Yes | 306 (29.8) | 171 (28.6) |
No | 722 (70.2) | 427 (71.4) |
Interviews typically lasted 15 minutes. Because of the time limitation, we included only a subset of our questions (101 items: full wording and top-line responses are provided in Appendix 1). We excluded questions if they would make sense only in the context of a pandemic (e.g. questions relating to antiviral use, which is not normally recommended in the UK for seasonal flu) or if the basic format of a battery of questions could be checked by asking one or two example questions. As well as answering questions about themselves, parents who had children aged ≤ 17 years living at home with them were also asked a subset of vaccination-related questions about one child, who was selected using the ‘most recent birthday’ method. 15 To assess the test–retest reliability of the items, Ipsos MORI attempted to recontact all of the participants between 28 January and 4 February (time 2). Those who could be reached were asked to complete an identical set of questions. A total of 621 (57.5%) participants completed the time 2 survey. Table 2 shows the demographic characteristics of these participants.
We assessed the internal reliability of a six-item scale assessing the severity of flu that we adapted from the Revised Illness Perceptions Questionnaire (IPQ-R)16 and of a measure of worry about the flu outbreak that we adapted from the six-item state version of the State–Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI-6)17 by checking for adequate Cronbach’s alphas (between 0.7 and 0.9), item-total correlations and inter-item correlations (between 0.2 and 0.9). 18 Because both scales resulted in skewed data, we dichotomised their scores, based on a median split for the time 1 data.
We assessed the test–retest reliability of data from scales and individual items using kappa coefficients and by assessing the percentage agreement in responses between the two time points. Owing to an administrative error, interviewers randomly selected a child to ask about vaccine-related questions at both times 1 and 2, rather than referring to the same child at both times. For the relevant items, we therefore restricted our analysis of test–retest reliability to those children who were of the same age and gender at each time point (n = 71), on the assumption that these were probably the same children. We treated kappa coefficients of 0.21–0.4 as ‘fair,’ those of 0.41–0.6 as ‘moderate’ and those of 0.61–0.8 as ‘substantial’. 19
Non-response bias
The survey data were also used to test for non-response bias. We tested this using chi-squared tests to compare participants who responded at time 2 and participants who did not respond at time 2, in terms of their scores at time 1.
Chapter 3 Results
Identification of key outcome and predictor variables
The key outcome and predictor variables that we selected are summarised in Tables 3 and 4. These tables also show the original source for the items, where applicable. In brief, the priority outcomes we identified were (1) preparatory behaviours (e.g. stocking up on over-the-counter medication or making plans); (2) the presence of flu-like symptoms among respondents; (3) the perceived presence of flu among respondents; (4) performance of respiratory, hand hygiene and avoidance behaviours; (5) intended and actual behaviours when ill, relating to health-care use or avoidance of other people; (6) intended and actual vaccine uptake for self and for any children; and (7) intended and actual antiviral use for self and for children.
Category | Example item | Sources for items |
---|---|---|
Knowledge of flu symptoms | Can you please tell me what the three most common symptoms of flu are? [open-ended question] | New item |
Knowledge about flu | It is likely that I have some natural immunity to the flu that’s going round at the moment | New items and adapted from Rubin et al. 2010;6 2009;20 201221 |
Information sources | Could you tell me what three places you have received most of your information about flu from in the past 7 days? [open ended] | New items |
Information sufficiency | I have enough information about what I can do to avoid catching flu | Adapted from Griffin et al. 200422 |
Credibility of information sources | [Source] can be trusted | Adapted from Meyer 198823 |
Trust in official agencies | In general, I think the Department of Health is acting in the public’s best interests in dealing with the current flu outbreak | Adapted from Rubin et al. 200920 |
Perceived flu | As far as you know, have you had flu in the past 7 days? | New item |
Flu symptoms | I am now going to read out a list of symptoms. For each one, can you tell me if you have had that symptom in the past 7 days? | List of symptoms based on Brooks-Pollock et al. 201124 |
Anxiety about the flu outbreak (scale) | For each of the following, please tell me whether you’ve been feeling that way when thinking about the flu that’s currently going round, in the past 7 days . . . | Adapted from Marteau and Becker 199217 |
Perceived likelihood of catching flu | If I don’t take any preventive action then I am likely to catch flu in the next 3 months | New items |
Fatalism | I have little control over whether I will catch flu | New items |
Perceived severity of flu (scale) | Flu would be a serious illness for me | Adapted from Moss-Morris et al. 200216 |
Category | Example item | Sources for items |
---|---|---|
Behaviour change (avoidance) | Because of the flu that’s going round, in the past 7 days have you . . . cancelled or postponed a social event, such as meeting friends, eating out or going to a sports event? | New items and adapted from Rubin et al. 2010;6 200920 |
Hand-washing knowledge | What does the phrase ‘thoroughly washing your hands’ mean to you? [open-ended question] | New items and adapted from Rubin et al. 2010;6 200920 |
Hand-washing behaviour | In the past 24 hours, how many times, if at all, have you washed your hands thoroughly? | Adapted from Rubin et al. 200920 |
Perceived efficacy of behaviours | An effective way to prevent the spread of flu is to . . . avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth | New items |
Self-efficacy for behaviours | Are you confident that, if you wanted to, you could . . . reduce the number of people you meet in the next week? | New items |
Subjective norms about behaviours | Most people would expect you to thoroughly and regularly wash your hands | Based on Myers and Goodwin 201125 |
Preparatory behaviours | I know that I currently have enough over-the-counter medicines, such as painkillers, to keep me going for 7 days, if I catch flu | New items |
Help-seeking behaviour | Have you sought help or advice about flu in the past 7 days? Where did you turn to first for help or advice? Can you tell me why you wanted help or advice? | New items |
Likely behaviour if ill/actual behaviour when ill | Imagine that tomorrow morning, you develop flu . . . We are interested in what you would probably try to do . . . Contact a pharmacist or chemist by phone | New items |
Vaccination intentions and behaviours (for self and child) | Have you had a flu vaccination for this winter? | New items |
Perceived efficacy of vaccine | Having the flu vaccine is an effective way of preventing you from catching flu | New item |
Perceptions and concerns relating to the vaccine | The flu vaccine has not been tested enough | New items based on perceptions discussed in Rubin et al. 2010;6 2011;7 and Bish et al. 201112 |
Antiviral use | Have you been advised to take antivirals such as Tamiflua or Relenzab by a health-care professional? | New items |
Perceived efficacy of antivirals | Antivirals are an effective treatment for flu | New item |
Reasons for not taking or delaying taking antivirals once prescribed | Why did you not finish the course? [open-ended item] | New item |
Testing and refinement of questions
In general, participants provided interpretations of our questions that matched our own interpretation, although questions that required them to consider a hypothetical circumstance, such as being prescribed antivirals, provoked more hesitation and uncertainty. All three rounds of interviews highlighted minor issues regarding ambiguity, technical jargon and lack of clarity within items. Most were straightforward to resolve. However, three difficulties were noteworthy. First, problems with wording persisted for items assessing social norms, which asked participants to state what ‘people who are important to you’ thought the participant should do. At the end of the third round of interviews, some participants still felt that these were convoluted and difficult to answer. Second, some participants were uncomfortable giving ‘true’ or ‘false’ answers to statements that were intended to assess knowledge or perceptions. This was resolved by changing the response options to ‘probably true,’ ‘not sure’ or ‘probably false.’ Third, it appeared that the five-point ‘strongly agree’ to ‘strongly disagree’ scale might pose challenges in a telephone interview. Participants often asked us to remind them of the options or hesitated when we asked them to clarify whether their agreement or disagreement was ‘strong’ or not. This was resolved by using the same three-point ‘probably true’ to ‘probably false’ scale. A complete list of all questions produced following our pilot testing is given in Appendix 2.
Reliability of questions
Removal of two items from the severity scale adapted from the IPQ-R (‘if I catch flu, it will cause difficulties for people who are important to me’ and ‘if I catch flu, it will have serious financial consequences for me’) brought the Cronbach’s alpha (0.73), inter-item correlations (0.30–0.50) and item-total correlations (0.42–0.57) to acceptable levels. The four-item scale was used in further analyses. The adapted STAI-6 showed acceptable Cronbach’s alpha (0.75) although one item, ‘content,’ showed poor inter-item correlations with the items ‘tense’ (0.15) and ‘worried’ (0.11). Deleting this item to produce a five-point scale that retained acceptable Cronbach’s alpha (0.72), inter-item correlations (0.21–0.58) and item-total correlations (0.45–0.53). The five-point scale was therefore used for all further analyses.
Test–retest reliability was fair for 33 variables, moderate for 36 variables and substantial for 12 variables (see Appendix 3). Two variables, relating to the perceived ability of someone to thoroughly and regularly wash hands if they wanted to (kappa coefficient = 0.16) and believing that flu is spread via coughs and sneezes (0.06), had low kappa coefficients. Both displayed ceiling effects, with > 95% of participants reporting high self-efficacy or believing the statement to be true, and both showed high agreement between the two time points (93% and 97%). The kappa coefficient, as a measure of chance-corrected agreement, is not useful in these circumstances.
Non-response bias
For the large majority of items, there was no difference in terms of responses to questions at time 1 between those who did and those who did not go on to respond at time 2.
Table 5 shows the difference between responders and non-responders in terms of demographic variables. The only significant effects were that responders tended to be older and better educated than non-responders.
Variable | Variable levels | Responders | Non-responders | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sex | Male | 265 (42.7) | 212 (46.2) | χ2 = 1.32, p = 0.25 |
Female | 356 (57.3) | 247 (53.8) | ||
Age, years | 18–24 | 39 (6.5) | 46 (10.4) | χ2 = 11.35, p = 0.02 |
25–34 | 79 (13.2) | 75 (17.0) | ||
35–54 | 233 (38.8) | 166 (37.6) | ||
55–64 | 107 (17.8) | 58 (13.2) | ||
> 64 | 142 (23.7) | 96 (21.8) | ||
Working status | Not working | 276 (44.5) | 182 (39.8) | χ2 = 2.40, p = 0.12 |
Working full or part time | 344 (55.5) | 275 (60.2) | ||
Household income, £ | < 30,000 | 272 (50.1) | 176 (48.2) | χ2 = 0.31, p = 0.58 |
> 30,000 | 271 (49.9) | 189 (51.8) | ||
Highest qualification | None | 65 (10.5) | 43 (9.4) | χ2 = 12.38, p = 0.03 |
GCSE or equivalent | 130 (20.9) | 96 (20.9) | ||
A-level or equivalent | 91 (14.7) | 80 (17.4) | ||
Degree or higher | 246 (39.6) | 172 (37.5) | ||
Other | 77 (12.4) | 44 (9.6) | ||
Ethnicity | White | 575 (93.3) | 411 (90.7) | χ2 = 2.49, p = 0.11 |
Other ethnic background | 41 (6.7) | 42 (9.3) | ||
Chronic illness | Present | 216 (35.4) | 142 (31.3) | χ2 = 1.94, p = 0.16 |
Absent | 395 (64.6) | 312 (68.7) | ||
Children aged < 18 years | Yes | 171 (28.6) | 135 (31.4) | χ2 = 0.94, p = 0.33 |
No | 427 (71.4) | 295 (68.6) |
Appendix 3 shows the difference between responders and non-responders in terms of non-demographic variables. The pattern of significant differences generally suggested that non-responders may have felt more vulnerable to flu than responders. More specifically, non-responders were more likely to report that they had recently had flu; believe that other people expected them to cough and sneeze into tissues; believe that catching flu would have financial consequence for them; believe that antibiotics are an effective treatment for flu; intend to be vaccinated; be willing to pay to be vaccinated; feel they had insufficient information about the vaccine; feel confused about the vaccine; and have high anxiety concerning flu. Non-responders were also less likely to believe that catching flu would cause difficulties for their friends or loved ones and to take over-the-counter remedies if they caught flu.
Chapter 4 Discussion
During a crisis, communication between health experts and the public needs to be a two-way process,26 yet mechanisms for obtaining feedback from the public are often designed at speed once a crisis has begun. This allows little time for deciding what information to collect, how to phrase questions or how to collect the data. In the heat of the moment, mistakes can be made. In this study, we undertook much of the groundwork needed to allow researchers and policy-makers to avoid common pitfalls and to obtain useful feedback from the public during the next flu pandemic. Specifically, we identified the variables that are most important to measure; generated questions with which to measure them; demonstrated that these questions are readily understood by members of the public and produce answers that are reasonably stable over time; and showed that it is possible to use a panel approach to data collection, albeit with caveats.
The outcome variables we selected were based on the requirements of several groups of stakeholders, including policy-makers, communication experts and infectious disease modellers. The result was a long list of issues that reflected their interests, including preparatory behaviours that people might be asked to undertake prior to a pandemic, respiratory and hand hygiene behaviours, behaviours relating to help-seeking when symptomatic, and behaviours relating to pharmaceutical and vaccine interventions. The list of potential predictor variables and other more generic variables that might be of assistance was similarly lengthy. Neither list is complete, however, and, before any future survey is launched, decisions on what variables to prioritise will still need to be made. Despite this, our list provides a good starting point for those who will need to make these decisions, being both evidence based and policy relevant.
The pilot interviews that we conducted improved the quality of our questions. They also demonstrated the importance of this step. Even though we had time to consult the literature, engage with stakeholders and discuss item wording among our team, each of the three rounds of interviews we conducted revealed ambiguities in our questions that we had not considered. This was not restricted to minor issues of item wording. Perhaps most notable was the confusion among participants as to the use of the ‘strongly agree/agree/neither agree nor disagree/disagree/strongly disagree’ response options. This was troubling, as these options are widely used in many other questionnaires. 18 We believe the issue may have reflected our attempt to use the scale over the telephone. 27 Had we used a written questionnaire, the visual presence of the items may have been sufficient to remind participants about the range of responses available to them. Future telephone surveys using the ‘strongly agree to strongly disagree’ scale should consider asking participants to write down the options before proceeding or collapsing responses into ‘agree/neither/disagree’ for the analysis.
The scale properties and test–retest reliabilities for our items were adequate, suggesting that each of the scales measured a single underlying concept as intended, and that substantial changes in results over time in item or scale scores are likely to reflect genuine shifts in public behaviours or opinions, rather than chance fluctuations in the data.
In terms of survey design, our data suggest that although a panel design is possible for pandemic flu-related surveys, care needs to be taken in its design and interpretation. Without incentives, participant attrition, even over the course of 1–2 weeks, is likely to be high. To maintain a sufficient sample size, recruitment of new responders would be required. Complicating this, our analysis of non-response bias suggested that those who drop out between survey waves are likely to be younger and less well educated, and differ from responders with respect to several flu-related variables. A design involving recruitment of a fresh sample of respondents at each survey wave, together with subsequent follow-up, may be required to allow prospective data to be collected while minimising the effects of bias due to attrition.
Future use of the survey template
The questions listed in Appendix 2 are freely available for anyone to use or adapt as they see fit, providing that appropriate reference is given to this paper. Within England, the questions will be kept under review and will be proposed for inclusion in any future survey work that is required during a flu pandemic or similar public health crisis. Funding and ethical approval is already in place for our team to assist with the analysis of any such surveys. The protocol for this future work, and for the current study, is given in Appendix 4. The questions are not specific to Great Britain and colleagues from other countries may wish to consider whether or not the items in Appendix 2 are applicable to their own needs and contexts. Use of identical items across countries would be of value in building an evidence base systematically and efficiently during the next pandemic. Further work on identifying a minimum data set that could be collected internationally would be worthwhile.
We do not recommend that future users attempt to adopt the items wholesale or uncritically, however. Most obviously, there are too many items for this to be feasible and priorities will need to be made. These are likely to change, depending on the needs of the survey end user and also on the stage of the pandemic. We also plan to conduct factor analysis with some of our data set to explore options for further reducing the number of items used. Future users should also be aware that the questions reflect current recommendations and needs. When these change, the questions will need to be adapted. For example, we used current official definitions to help develop some items, such as what flu-like symptoms to record24 and how to describe appropriate hand-washing. 28
Limitations
Five limitations should be considered regarding this work. First, our use of a database of research volunteers for our pilot interviews may have made our sample unrepresentative. In particular, it is possible that members of the database were familiar with research jargon and procedures owing to their participation in previous studies, making them less inclined to detect or comment on unusual wording in our questions.
Second, our items relating to social norms remained difficult for some participants to understand. The confusion appeared to relate to being asked to anticipate what someone else might think or feel about one’s behaviours. Additional work on these items is required.
Third, although generally acceptable, the test–retest reliability scores for some items suggested room for improvement. Some caution is required in interpreting our statistical measures of test–retest reliability. Participation in the initial survey and knowing that the interviewer would be calling back may have prompted some participants to read about flu-related issues between the two time points, artificially lowering the apparent reliability of their responses. Indeed, participating in the time 1 survey may itself have been sufficient to alter how people thought about flu, with other questions or interviewer prompts changing the way participants perceived certain issues. Nonetheless, our use of single-item measures almost certainly contributed to genuine low reliability in many cases. Although adding more items and producing scales for each variable might be one option to improve reliability, this would be at the expense of reducing the number of variables that could be measured in any given survey. We therefore chose to accept suboptimal reliability for some variables as an acceptable trade-off for increased information per survey.
Fourth, our items are based on self-report. Responses may be affected by recall or social desirability biases. Although this is less of an issue for some variables (e.g. recall for having had a flu vaccination) it may be more problematic for others (e.g. reports of how many times the participant has washed their hands). As ever with survey data, caution should be exercised when interpreting some of the results. Future work should explore how to improve the validity of self-report items in this context, for example by linking behaviours to a concrete activity or point in time to help make them easier to recall (e.g. washing your hands before your last meal).
Fifth, our measure of non-response bias relates to the effects of non-response only among people who had already elected to take part in the survey at time 1. Whether or not that sample is representative of the general adult population of Great Britain is a separate matter. The choice of a random-digit dial proportional quota sample for this study was primarily driven by our desire to replicate the official surveys used within Great Britain during the 2009–10 pandemic. These strategies inevitably give rise to questions concerning their low response rates, although it should be noted that such surveys can still perform well when compared with other, more traditional, epidemiological techniques. 29 Despite this, given the current decline in landline telephone use and the drive to explore alternative survey methods, a telephone survey using quota sampling may not be appropriate during a future pandemic. 30 The decision as to how to deploy the questions described in this paper is an issue that requires consideration in its own right.
Chapter 5 Conclusions
Understanding how the public are reacting during a public health crisis is an important challenge for public health experts and policy-makers. Preparing to obtain these data should not be left until a crisis is already under way. The work described in this paper has resulted in an evidence-based, policy-relevant set of items that can be used with confidence in a telephone survey during the next pandemic or related public health incident. Although it is impossible to predict exactly what data will be required in these circumstances, the questions can also be readily adapted to suit the needs of researchers or policy-makers as an outbreak evolves.
Acknowledgements
This paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR). Richard Amlôt is supported as a full-time employee of Public Health England. James Rubin, Richard Amlôt and Susan Michie also received funding from the NIHR Health Protection Research Units (HPRUs) in Emergency Preparedness and Response at King’s College London, and Evaluation of Interventions at the University of Bristol, in partnership with Public Health England. The funders played no part in the study design; the collection, analysis, or interpretation of the data; the writing of the report; or the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of their funders or employers. We are grateful to Chenine Bruley, Simon Cauchemez, Ken Eames, Richard Goddard, Punam Mangtani, Bruce Taylor, Peter White and all of our participants for their helpful feedback throughout this project.
Contribution of authors
G James Rubin (Senior Lecturer in the Psychology of Emerging Health Risks) and Susan Michie (Professor of Health Psychology) had the original idea for the study following discussion with policy and public health colleagues in Europe and the UK, and developed the study design with Richard Amlôt (Scientific Programme Leader in Behavioural Science), Nicola Fear (Reader in Epidemiology) and Henry WW Potts (Senior Lecturer, Statistics).
Savita Bakhshi (Post-Doctoral Research Worker, Psychology) conducted the interviews to test question wording and carried out the statistical analyses with James Rubin.
G James Rubin and Savita Bakhshi co-wrote sections for the first draft of the manuscript.
All authors contributed to further drafts and had full access to all of the data.
Disclaimers
This report presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR). The views and opinions expressed by authors in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the NHS, the NIHR, NETSCC, the HS&DR programme or the Department of Health. If there are verbatim quotations included in this publication the views and opinions expressed by the interviewees are those of the interviewees and do not necessarily reflect those of the authors, those of the NHS, the NIHR, NETSCC, the HS&DR programme or the Department of Health.
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Appendix 1 Top-line survey results
Appendix 2 Full set of survey questions
Appendix 3 Full table of results for assessment of non-response bias and test–retest reliability for all relevant items
Item | Response scale | Sample size (time 1)a | Time 1 data for those who did respond at time 2 (%) | Time 1 data for those who did not respond at time 2 (%) | Difference in time 1 data between responders and non-responders | Sample size (time 2)a | Time 2 data (%) | Kappa coefficient for test–retest reliability (% agreement) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Perceived flu in past 7 days | Probably yes | 1079 | 20 (3.2) | 30 (6.6) | χ2 = 14.56, p < 0.001 | 621 | 24 (3.9) | Not applicable |
Not sure | 3 (0.5) | 11 (2.4) | 6 (1.0) | |||||
Probably no | 598 (96.3) | 417 (91.0) | 591 (95.2) | |||||
Perceived flu this winter | Probably yes | 1080 | 75 (12.1) | 70 (15.3) | χ2 = 3.06, p = 0.22 | 621 | 79 (12.7) | 0.73 (93.1) |
Not sure | 13 (2.1) | 13 (2.8) | 12 (1.9) | |||||
Probably no | 533 (85.8) | 376 (81.9) | 530 (85.3) | |||||
Avoidance, cleaning and respiratory behaviour | ||||||||
Cleaning or disinfecting things | Yes | 1063 | 112 (18.2) | 92 (20.5) | χ2 = 0.85, p = 0.36 | 615 | 115 (18.7) | 0.47 (84.1) |
No | 502 (81.8) | 357 (79.5) | 500 (81.3) | |||||
Using sanitising hand gel | Yes | 1069 | 136 (22.1) | 123 (27.2) | χ2 = 3.66, p = 0.06 | 613 | 137 (22.3) | 0.44 (80.6) |
No | 480 (77.9) | 330 (72.8) | 476 (77.7) | |||||
Reducing face touching | Yes | 1045 | 74 (12.3) | 73 (16.5) | χ2 = 3.70, p = 0.05 | 609 | 143 (23.5) | 0.33 (80.1) |
No | 528 (87.7) | 370 (83.5) | 466 (76.5) | |||||
Washing hands more than usual | Yes | 1064 | 179 (29.2) | 141 (31.2) | χ2 = 0.47, p = 0.49 | 612 | 191 (31.2) | 0.37 (73.6) |
No | 433 (70.8) | 311 (68.8) | 421 (68.8) | |||||
Avoiding people who have flu | Yes | 1054 | 243 (40.0) | 195 (43.8) | χ2 = 1.63, p = 0.20 | 602 | 243 (40.4) | 0.47 (74.6) |
No | 366 (60.0) | 250 (56.2) | 359 (59.6) | |||||
Carrying tissues | Yes | 1073 | 435 (70.6) | 312 (68.3) | χ2 = 0.68, p = 0.41 | 621 | 472 (76.0) | 0.57 (83.3) |
No | 181 (29.4) | 145 (31.7) | 149 (24.0) | |||||
Using tissues when sneezing or coughing | Yes | 1069 | 499 (81.4) | 365 (80.0) | χ2 = 0.31, p = 0.58 | 612 | 515 (84.2) | 0.58 (87.9) |
No | 114 (18.6) | 91 (20.0) | 97 (15.8) | |||||
Putting tissues in bin after use | Yes | 853 | 426 (86.6) | 328 (90.9) | χ2 = 3.71, p = 0.05 | 509 | 475 (93.3) | 0.47 (90.9) |
No | 66 (13.4) | 33 (9.1) | 34 (6.7) | |||||
Efficacy of behaviours | ||||||||
Meeting fewer people | Probably true | 1070 | 407 (65.9) | 291 (64.4) | χ2 = 2.67, p = 0.26 | 619 | 451 (72.9) | 0.39 (71.9) |
Not sure | 42 (6.8) | 43 (9.5) | 40 (6.5) | |||||
Probably false | 169 (27.3) | 118 (26.1) | 128 (20.7) | |||||
Cleaning or disinfecting surfaces | Probably true | 1076 | 533 (86.2) | 402 (87.8) | χ2 = 0.58, p = 0.75 | 621 | 543 (87.4) | 0.29 (83.2) |
Not sure | 35 (5.7) | 24 (5.2) | 31 (5.0) | |||||
Probably false | 50 (8.1) | 32 (7.0) | 47 (7.6) | |||||
Thoroughly and regularly washing hands | Probably true | 1080 | 599 (96.5) | 437 (95.2) | χ2 = 2.67, p = 0.26 | 620 | 599 (96.6) | 0.26 (95.0) |
Not sure | 6 (0.9) | 10 (2.2) | 10 (1.6) | |||||
Probably false | 16 (2.6) | 12 (2.6) | 11 (1.8) | |||||
Using sanitising hand gel | Probably true | 1077 | 504 (81.3) | 362 (79.2) | χ2 = 1.02, p = 0.60 | 618 | 521 (84.3) | 0.33 (80.1) |
Not sure | 41 (6.6) | 37 (8.1) | 43 (7.0) | |||||
Probably false | 75 (12.1) | 58 (12.7) | 54 (8.7) | |||||
Coughing or sneezing into tissues | Probably true | 1079 | 605 (97.4) | 444 (96.9) | χ2 = 0.71, p = 0.70 | 620 | 604 (97.4) | 0.44 (97.3) |
Not sure | 6 (1.0) | 7 (1.5) | 6 (1.0) | |||||
Probably false | 10 (1.6) | 7 (1.5) | 10 (1.6) | |||||
Avoiding touching face | Probably true | 1073 | 477 (77.4) | 352 (77.0) | χ2 = 2.28, p = 0.32 | 620 | 522 (84.2) | 0.38 (79.3) |
Not sure | 62 (10.1) | 57 (12.5) | 52 (8.4) | |||||
Probably false | 77 (12.5) | 48 (10.5) | 46 (7.4) | |||||
Self-efficacy for behaviours | ||||||||
Meeting fewer people | Probably true | 1070 | 268 (43.5) | 189 (41.6) | χ2 = 0.90, p = 0.64 | 621 | 293 (47.2) | 0.35 (63.1) |
Not sure | 43 (7.0) | 38 (8.4) | 52 (8.4) | |||||
Probably false | 305 (49.5) | 227 (50.0) | 276 (44.4) | |||||
Cleaning or disinfecting surfaces | Probably true | 1077 | 500 (80.6) | 361 (80.0) | χ2 = 0.65, p = 0.72 | 621 | 507 (81.6) | 0.30 (77.6) |
Not sure | 39 (6.3) | 34 (7.4) | 40 (6.4) | |||||
Probably false | 81 (13.1) | 62 (13.6) | 74 (11.9) | |||||
Thoroughly and regularly washing hands | Probably true | 1080 | 609 (98.1) | 437 (95.2) | χ2 = 7.21, p = 0.03 | 621 | 610 (98.2) | 0.16 (96.9) |
Not sure | 4 (0.6) | 6 (1.3) | 4 (0.6) | |||||
Probably false | 8 (1.3) | 16 (3.5) | 7 (1.1) | |||||
Carrying sanitising hand gel | Probably true | 1076 | 433 (69.9) | 320 (70.0) | χ2 = 0.01, p = 0.99 | 620 | 463 (74.7) | 0.39 (74.4) |
Not sure | 32 (5.2) | 23 (5.0) | 18 (2.9) | |||||
Probably false | 154 (24.9) | 114 (24.9) | 139 (22.4) | |||||
Carrying tissues | Probably true | 1078 | 591 (95.2) | 430 (94.1) | χ2 = 0.98, p = 0.61 | 621 | 590 (95.0) | 0.38 (94.2) |
Not sure | 5 (0.8) | 3 (0.6) | 6 (1.0) | |||||
Probably false | 25 (4.0) | 24 (5.3) | 25 (4.0) | |||||
Avoiding touching face | Probably true | 1075 | 407 (66.0) | 313 (68.3) | χ2 = 0.71, p = 0.70 | 621 | 438 (70.5) | 0.33 (67.9) |
Not sure | 66 (10.7) | 47 (10.3) | 51 (8.2) | |||||
Probably false | 144 (23.3) | 98 (21.4) | 132 (21.3) | |||||
Perceptions of significant others | ||||||||
Thoroughly and regularly washing hands | Probably true | 1076 | 566 (91.3) | 415 (91.0) | χ2 = 1.58, p = 0.46 | 621 | 586 (94.4) | 0.34 (91.0) |
Not sure | 28 (4.5) | 16 (3.5) | 14 (2.3) | |||||
Probably false | 26 (4.2) | 25 (5.5) | 21 (3.4) | |||||
Coughing or sneezing into tissues | Probably true | 1071 | 538 (86.9) | 375 (83.0) | χ2 = 3.52, p = 0.17 | 617 | 550 (89.1) | 0.31 (84.9) |
Not sure | 44 (7.1) | 45 (10.0) | 38 (6.2) | |||||
Probably false | 37 (6.0) | 32 (7.0) | 29 (4.7) | |||||
Expectations of most other people | ||||||||
Thoroughly and regularly washing hands | Probably true | 1074 | 506 (82.1) | 386 (84.3) | χ2 = 3.33, p = 0.19 | 620 | 524 (84.5) | 0.36 (81.1) |
Not sure | 29 (4.7) | 27 (5.9) | 42 (6.8) | |||||
Probably false | 81 (13.2) | 45 (9.8) | 54 (8.7) | |||||
Coughing or sneezing into tissues | Probably true | 1076 | 503 (81.4) | 380 (83.0) | χ2 = 6.78, p = 0.03 | 620 | 512 (82.6) | 0.28 (77.5) |
Not sure | 45 (7.3) | 45 (9.8) | 50 (8.1) | |||||
Probably false | 70 (11.3) | 33 (7.2) | 58 (9.4) | |||||
General perceptions of flu | ||||||||
Perceived severity (scale: responses of 4–12, with higher score indicating greater severity) | Low severity (score of 4–7) | 1063 | 286 (46.6) | 222 (49.4) | χ2 = 0.85, p = 0.36 | 612 | 250 (40.8) | 0.63 (81.5) |
High severity (score of 8–12) | 328 (53.4) | 227 (50.6) | 362 (59.2) | |||||
Financial consequences of flu | Probably true | 1076 | 89 (14.4) | 77 (16.9) | χ2 = 8.05, p = 0.02 | 620 | 98 (15.8) | 0.40 (79.6) |
Not sure | 30 (4.8) | 39 (8.6) | 36 (5.8) | |||||
Probably false | 501 (80.8) | 340 (74.5) | 486 (78.4) | |||||
Difficulties for others | Probably true | 1078 | 411 (66.3) | 286 (62.4) | χ2 = 6.75, p = 0.03 | 619 | 364 (58.8) | 0.41 (70.6) |
Not sure | 28 (4.5) | 38 (8.3) | 32 (5.2) | |||||
Probably false | 181 (29.2) | 134 (29.3) | 223 (36.0) | |||||
Likelihood of catching flu | Probably true | 1071 | 217 (35.3) | 173 (37.9) | χ2 = 4.22, p = 0.12 | 620 | 187 (30.2) | 0.39 (60.7) |
Not sure | 130 (21.1) | 112 (24.6) | 135 (21.8) | |||||
Probably false | 268 (43.6) | 171 (37.5) | 298 (48.1) | |||||
Little control over catching flu | Probably true | 1076 | 318 (51.3) | 222 (48.7) | χ2 = 1.28, p = 0.53 | 619 | 325 (52.5) | 0.29 (59.1) |
Not sure | 74 (11.9) | 64 (14.0) | 58 (9.4) | |||||
Probably false | 228 (36.8) | 170 (37.3) | 236 (38.1) | |||||
Flu from food contamination | Probably true | 1069 | 274 (44.5) | 216 (47.7) | χ2 = 1.09, p = 0.58 | 619 | 311 (50.2) | 0.42 (62.8) |
Not sure | 176 (28.6) | 123 (27.1) | 146 (23.6) | |||||
Probably false | 166 (26.9) | 114 (25.2) | 162 (26.2) | |||||
Flu from surfaces | Probably true | 1078 | 555 (89.5) | 412 (90.0) | χ2 = 1.87, p = 0.39 | 621 | 571 (91.9) | 0.24 (86.9) |
Not sure | 37 (6.0) | 32 (7.0) | 33 (5.3) | |||||
Probably false | 28 (4.5) | 14 (3.0) | 17 (2.7) | |||||
Flu from coughs and sneezes | Probably true | 1079 | 599 (96.5) | 428 (93.4) | χ2 = 5.30, p = 0.07 | 620 | 596 (96.1) | 0.06 (93.2) |
Not sure | 10 (1.6) | 15 (3.3) | 16 (2.6) | |||||
Probably false | 12 (1.9) | 15 (3.3) | 8 (1.3) | |||||
Easy to spot people with flu | Probably true | 1074 | 101 (16.3) | 97 (21.3) | χ2 = 4.42, p = 0.11 | 621 | 107 (17.2) | 0.37 (72.2) |
Not sure | 71 (11.5) | 47 (10.3) | 70 (11.3) | |||||
Probably false | 447 (72.2) | 311 (68.4) | 444 (71.5) | |||||
Antibiotics as effective treatment | Probably true | 1079 | 87 (14.0) | 92 (20.0) | χ2 = 14.08, p = 0.00 | 619 | 97 (15.7) | 0.49 (77.5) |
Not sure | 84 (13.5) | 84 (18.3) | 81 (13.1) | |||||
Probably false | 449 (72.5) | 283 (61.7) | 441 (71.2) | |||||
Sufficient information about flu | Probably true | 1076 | 530 (85.8) | 382 (83.4) | χ2 = 1.45, p = 0.49 | 621 | 538 (86.6) | 0.27 (81.9) |
Not sure | 35 (5.7) | 27 (5.9) | 41 (6.6) | |||||
Probably false | 53 (8.6) | 49 (10.7) | 42 (6.8) | |||||
Seeking help or advice about flu | Yes | 1080 | 20 (3.2) | 19 (4.1) | χ2 = 0.64, p = 0.42 | 621 | 10 (1.6) | Not applicable |
No | 601 (96.8) | 440 (95.9) | 611 (98.4) | |||||
Behaviour if developed flu | ||||||||
Staying at home | Probably true | 1028 | 544 (90.7) | 384 (89.7) | χ2 = 0.61, p = 0.74 | 597 | 548 (91.8) | 0.58 (93.1) |
Not sure | 16 (2.7) | 15 (3.5) | 10 (1.7) | |||||
Probably false | 40 (6.7) | 29 (6.8) | 39 (6.5) | |||||
Going to school, college, university or work as normal | Probably true | 973 | 111 (19.4) | 86 (21.4) | χ2 = 1.74, p = 0.42 | 583 | 94 (16.1) | 0.58 (84.3) |
Not sure | 25 (4.4) | 23 (5.7) | 31 (5.3) | |||||
Probably false | 436 (76.2) | 292 (72.8) | 458 (78.6) | |||||
Avoiding meeting people | Probably true | 1029 | 504 (83.8) | 351 (82.0) | χ2 = 0.82, p = 0.66 | 597 | 513 (85.9) | 0.38 (84.0) |
Not sure | 19 (3.2) | 13 (3.0) | 23 (3.9) | |||||
Probably false | 78 (13.0) | 64 (15.0) | 61 (10.2) | |||||
Taking over-the-counter remedies | Probably true | 1029 | 525 (87.4) | 366 (85.5) | χ2 = 7.26, p = 0.03 | 596 | 514 (86.2) | 0.59 (90.3) |
Not sure | 9 (1.5) | 18 (4.2) | 15 (2.5) | |||||
Probably false | 67 (11.1) | 44 (10.3) | 67 (11.2) | |||||
Taking complementary remedies | Probably true | 1030 | 118 (19.6) | 89 (20.7) | χ2 = 0.29, p = 0.87 | 596 | 120 (20.1) | 0.49 (80.0) |
Not sure | 26 (4.4) | 20 (4.7) | 33 (5.5) | |||||
Probably false | 457 (76.0) | 320 (74.6) | 443 (74.3) | |||||
Others could collect medicines or food | Probably true | 1030 | 564 (93.8) | 393 (91.6) | χ2 = 1.90, p = 0.39 | 597 | 568 (95.1) | 0.35 (92.9) |
Not sure | 6 (1.0) | 6 (1.4) | 8 (1.3) | |||||
Probably false | 31 (5.2) | 30 (7.0) | 21 (3.5) | |||||
Others could look after them | Probably true | 1029 | 351 (58.4) | 230 (53.7) | χ2 = 2.23, p = 0.33 | 596 | 359 (60.2) | 0.62 (80.3) |
Not sure | 31 (5.2) | 25 (5.8) | 31 (5.2) | |||||
Probably false | 219 (36.4) | 173 (40.4) | 206 (34.6) | |||||
Getting medical advice or treatment | Probably true | 1030 | 276 (45.9) | 203 (47.3) | χ2 = 0.23, p = 0.89 | 596 | 267 (44.8) | 0.48 (70.0) |
Not sure | 42 (7.0) | 28 (6.5) | 58 (9.7) | |||||
Probably false | 283 (47.1) | 198 (46.2) | 271 (45.5) | |||||
Flu vaccinations | ||||||||
Past vaccinations | Yes | 1080 | 258 (41.5) | 204 (44.4) | χ2 = 1.58, p = 0.45 | 621 | 261 (42.0) | 0.79 (89.0) |
Not sure | 16 (2.6) | 15 (3.3) | 11 (1.8) | |||||
No | 347 (55.9) | 240 (52.3) | 349 (56.2) | |||||
Vaccination this winter | Yes | 1080 | 193 (31.1) | 147 (32.0) | χ2 = 1.11, p = 0.95 | 621 | 194 (31.2) | 0.97 (98.7) |
Not sure | 4 (0.6) | 3 (0.7) | 3 (0.5) | |||||
No | 424 (68.3) | 309 (67.3) | 424 (68.3) | |||||
NHS vaccination offer (for those who have not been vaccinated) | Yes | 740 | 91 (21.3) | 51 (16.3) | χ2 = 5.05, p = 0.08 | 427 | 92 (21.5) | 0.77 (91.5) |
Not sure | 9 (2.1) | 13 (4.2) | 13 (3.0) | |||||
No | 328 (76.6) | 248 (79.5) | 322 (75.4) | |||||
NHS vaccination eligibility (for those who have not been vaccinated) | Yes | 740 | 124 (29.0) | 88 (28.2) | χ2 = 1.86, p = 0.39 | 427 | 130 (30.4) | 0.69 (79.8) |
Not sure | 118 (27.6) | 100 (32.1) | 121 (28.3) | |||||
No | 186 (43.4) | 124 (39.7) | 176 (41.2) | |||||
Paying to have a vaccination (for those who have not been vaccinated) | Yes | 740 | 15 (3.5) | 25 (8.0) | χ2 = 7.48, p = 0.02 | 427 | 9 (2.1) | 0.41 (93.7) |
Not sure | 13 (3.0) | 7 (2.2) | 11 (2.6) | |||||
No | 400 (93.5) | 280 (89.7) | 407 (95.3) | |||||
Vaccination intention (for those who have not been vaccinated) | Yes | 740 | 22 (5.1) | 30 (9.6) | χ2 = 7.17, p = 0.03 | 427 | 19 (4.4) | 0.51 (91.8) |
Not sure | 23 (5.4) | 23 (7.4) | 15 (3.5) | |||||
No | 383 (89.5) | 259 (83.0) | 393 (92.0) | |||||
Vaccination intention (if rules changed for ineligible respondents) | Yes | 302 | 84 (46.7) | 61 (50.0) | χ2 = 2.56, p = 0.28 | 175 | 74 (42.3) | 0.67 (79.9) |
Not sure | 17 (9.4) | 17 (13.9) | 24 (13.7) | |||||
No | 79 (43.9) | 44 (36.1) | 77 (44.0) | |||||
Flu vaccinations in general | ||||||||
Vaccinations disagreement | True | 1075 | 47 (7.6) | 38 (8.3) | χ2 = 3.15, p = 0.21 | 619 | 47 (7.6) | 0.38 (85.9) |
Not sure | 32 (5.2) | 35 (7.7) | 30 (4.8) | |||||
False | 540 (87.2) | 383 (84.0) | 542 (87.6) | |||||
Needle dislike | True | 1070 | 188 (30.5) | 158 (34.9) | χ2 = 2.33, p = 0.31 | 617 | 204 (33.1) | 0.67 (84.7) |
Not sure | 17 (2.8) | 12 (2.6) | 11 (1.8) | |||||
False | 412 (66.8) | 283 (62.5) | 402 (65.2) | |||||
Do not need the vaccine: healthy | True | 1075 | 306 (49.5) | 213 (46.6) | χ2 = 2.90, p = 0.64 | 618 | 288 (46.6) | 0.64 (79.7) |
Not sure | 44 (7.1) | 35 (7.7) | 40 (6.5) | |||||
False | 268 (43.4) | 209 (45.7) | 290 (46.9) | |||||
Do not need the vaccine: unlikely to catch flu | True | 1073 | 120 (19.4) | 70 (15.4) | χ2 = 2.87, p = 0.24 | 615 | 122 (19.8) | 0.47 (74.6) |
Not sure | 79 (12.8) | 59 (13.0) | 72 (11.7) | |||||
False | 420 (67.9) | 325 (71.6) | 421 (68.5) | |||||
Too busy to get vaccine | True | 1076 | 93 (15.0) | 77 (16.9) | χ2 = 2.25, p = 0.32 | 620 | 97 (15.6) | 0.44 (82.7) |
Not sure | 20 (3.2) | 21 (4.6) | 15 (2.4) | |||||
False | 507 (81.8) | 358 (78.5) | 508 (81.9) | |||||
Appointment difficulty | True | 1071 | 95 (15.4) | 96 (21.1) | χ2 = 6.07, p = 0.05 | 613 | 85 (13.9) | 0.46 (72.6) |
Not sure | 109 (17.7) | 79 (17.4) | 132 (21.5) | |||||
False | 413 (66.9) | 279 (61.5) | 396 (64.6) | |||||
Health care practitioner recommendation: get vaccine | True | 1077 | 259 (41.9) | 206 (44.9) | χ2 = 0.97, p = 0.62 | 619 | 250 (40.4) | 0.63 (80.5) |
Not sure | 23 (3.7) | 17 (3.7) | 20 (3.2) | |||||
False | 336 (54.4) | 236 (51.4) | 349 (56.4) | |||||
Health care practitioner recommendation: do not get vaccine | True | 1076 | 32 (5.2) | 18 (4.0) | χ2 = 1.93, p = 0.38 | 619 | 22 (3.6) | 0.21 (88.0) |
Not sure | 23 (3.7) | 23 (5.0) | 22 (3.6) | |||||
False | 566 (91.1) | 414 (91.0) | 575 (92.9) | |||||
Insufficient information about vaccine | True | 1074 | 197 (31.9) | 183 (40.1) | χ2 = 7.83, p = 0.02 | 620 | 178 (28.7) | 0.35 (63.4) |
Not sure | 70 (11.3) | 46 (10.1) | 78 (12.6) | |||||
False | 351 (56.8) | 227 (49.8) | 364 (58.7) | |||||
Confusion about vaccine | True | 1068 | 80 (13.0) | 73 (16.1) | χ2 = 6.79, p = 0.03 | 615 | 73 (11.9) | 0.35 (77.2) |
Not sure | 57 (9.3) | 59 (13.0) | 49 (8.0) | |||||
False | 478 (77.7) | 321 (70.9) | 493 (80.2) | |||||
Lack of testing | True | 1070 | 44 (7.1) | 44 (9.7) | χ2 = 4.95, p = 0.08 | 610 | 50 (8.2) | 0.50 (73.6) |
Not sure | 206 (33.4) | 168 (37.1) | 187 (30.7) | |||||
False | 367 (59.5) | 241 (53.2) | 373 (61.1) | |||||
Short-term side effects | True | 1074 | 269 (43.5) | 210 (46.1) | χ2 = 1.39, p = 0.50 | 619 | 266 (43.0) | 0.50 (67.7) |
Not sure | 175 (28.3) | 132 (28.9) | 180 (29.1) | |||||
False | 174 (28.2) | 114 (25.0) | 173 (27.9) | |||||
Long-term health problems | True | 1076 | 36 (5.8) | 30 (6.6) | χ2 = 0.28, p = 0.87 | 617 | 32 (5.2) | 0.47 (74.8) |
Not sure | 187 (30.2) | 137 (30.0) | 154 (25.0) | |||||
False | 397 (64.0) | 289 (63.4) | 431 (69.9) | |||||
Flu season protection | True | 1076 | 502 (81.1) | 312 (68.3) | χ2 = 23.98, p < 0.001 | 619 | 501 (80.9) | 0.50 (84.0) |
Not sure | 86 (13.9) | 112 (24.5) | 83 (13.4) | |||||
False | 31 (5.0) | 33 (7.2) | 35 (5.7) | |||||
Medication interaction | True | 1070 | 73 (11.8) | 50 (11.0) | χ2 = 1.66, p = 0.44 | 617 | 61 (9.9) | 0.40 (67.4) |
Not sure | 179 (29.0) | 148 (32.7) | 188 (30.5) | |||||
False | 365 (59.2) | 255 (56.3) | 368 (59.6) | |||||
Manufacturers making money | True | 1072 | 51 (8.3) | 42 (9.2) | χ2 = 5.18, p = 0.08 | 616 | 50 (8.1) | 0.47 (78.9) |
Not sure | 98 (15.9) | 95 (20.9) | 107 (17.4) | |||||
False | 468 (75.9) | 318 (69.9) | 459 (74.5) | |||||
Vaccine is effective | True | 1076 | 447 (72.3) | 337 (73.6) | χ2 = 1.48, p = 0.48 | 617 | 457 (74.1) | 0.45 (76.7) |
Not sure | 99 (16.0) | 78 (17.0) | 95 (15.4) | |||||
False | 72 (11.7) | 43 (9.4) | 65 (10.5) | |||||
Flu vaccinations (child) | ||||||||
Past vaccinations | Yes | 315 | 22 (12.7) | 12 (8.5) | χ2 = 4.53, p = 0.10 | 168 | 25 (14.9) | 0.48b (87.5) |
Not sure | 7 (4.0) | 13 (9.2) | 7 (4.2) | |||||
No | 144 (83.2) | 117 (82.4) | 136 (81.0) | |||||
Vaccination this winter | Yes | 315 | 14 (8.1) | 6 (4.2) | χ2 = 2.86, p = 0.24 | 168 | 12 (7.1) | 0.59b (95.8) |
Not sure | 3 (1.7) | 5 (3.5) | 6 (3.6) | |||||
No | 156 (90.2) | 131 (92.3) | 150 (89.3) | |||||
NHS vaccination offer | Yes | 295 | 3 (1.9) | 5 (3.7) | χ2 = 0.99, p = 0.61 | 156 | 1 (0.6) | 0.42b (90.9) |
Not sure | 16 (10.1) | 12 (8.8) | 12 (7.7) | |||||
No | 140 (88.1) | 119 (87.5) | 143 (91.7) | |||||
NHS vaccination eligibility | Yes | 295 | 14 (8.8) | 17 (12.5) | χ2 = 1.26, p = 0.53 | 156 | 13 (8.3) | 0.47b (69.5) |
Not sure | 74 (46.5) | 64 (47.1) | 57 (36.5) | |||||
No | 71 (44.7) | 55 (40.4) | 86 (55.1) | |||||
Paying to have NHS vaccination | Yes | 295 | 5 (3.1) | 6 (4.4) | χ2 = 0.41, p = 0.81 | 156 | 2 (1.3) | 0.31b (91.6) |
Not sure | 7 (4.4) | 5 (3.7) | 8 (5.1) | |||||
No | 147 (92.5) | 125 (91.9) | 146 (93.6) | |||||
Vaccination intention | Yes | 295 | 5 (3.1) | 10 (7.4) | χ2 = 3.09, p = 0.21 | 156 | 5 (3.2) | 0.46b (88.3) |
Not sure | 17 (10.7) | 17 (12.5) | 8 (5.1) | |||||
No | 137 (86.2) | 109 (80.1) | 143 (91.7) | |||||
Vaccination intention (if rules changed for ineligible respondents) | Yes | 262 | 48 (33.6) | 52 (43.7) | χ2 = 3.97, p = 0.14 | 143 | 51 (35.7) | 0.55b (68.4) |
Not sure | 45 (31.5) | 26 (21.8) | 33 (23.1) | |||||
No | 50 (35.0) | 41 (34.5) | 59 (41.3) | |||||
Flu vaccinations in general (child) | ||||||||
Needle dislike | True | 315 | 104 (60.1) | 77 (54.2) | χ2 = 2.69, p = 0.26 | 167 | 104 (62.3) | 0.70b (79.6) |
Not sure | 11 (6.4) | 16 (11.3) | 6 (3.6) | |||||
False | 58 (33.5) | 49 (34.5) | 57 (34.1) | |||||
Do not need the vaccine: healthy | True | 314 | 99 (57.6) | 86 (60.6) | χ2 = 0.73, p = 0.69 | 168 | 101 (60.1) | 0.57b (73.7) |
Not sure | 25 (14.5) | 16 (11.3) | 20 (11.9) | |||||
False | 48 (27.9) | 40 (28.2) | 47 (28.0) | |||||
Do not need the vaccine: unlikely to catch flu | True | 314 | 29 (16.9) | 25 (17.6) | χ2 = 0.28, p = 0.87 | 167 | 34 (20.4) | 0.32b (67.5) |
Not sure | 27 (15.7) | 25 (17.6) | 33 (19.8) | |||||
False | 116 (67.4) | 92 (64.8) | 100 (59.9) | |||||
Too busy to get vaccine | True | 314 | 9 (5.2) | 4 (2.8) | χ2 = 1.50, p = 0.47 | 168 | 11 (6.5) | 0.51b (90.4) |
Not sure | 4 (2.3) | 5 (3.5) | 4 (2.4) | |||||
False | 159 (92.4) | 133 (93.7) | 153 (91.1) | |||||
Health care practitioner recommendation: get vaccine | True | 315 | 21 (12.1) | 19 (13.4) | χ2 = 2.66, p = 0.26 | 168 | 21 (12.5) | 0.49b (85.1) |
Not sure | 11 (6.4) | 16 (11.3) | 5 (3.0) | |||||
False | 141 (81.5) | 107 (75.4) | 142 (84.5) | |||||
Health care practitioner recommendation: do not get vaccine | True | 314 | 10 (5.8) | 6 (4.3) | χ2 = 0.51, p = 0.78 | 168 | 7 (4.2) | 0.26b (85.7) |
Not sure | 16 (9.2) | 15 (10.6) | 6 (3.6) | |||||
False | 147 (85.0) | 120 (85.1) | 155 (92.3) | |||||
Medication interaction | True | 314 | 6 (3.5) | 6 (4.2) | χ2 = 0.58, p = 0.75 | 168 | 8 (4.8) | 0.45b (79.6) |
Not sure | 36 (20.9) | 34 (23.9) | 20 (11.9) | |||||
False | 130 (75.6) | 102 (71.8) | 140 (83.3) | |||||
Emotions | ||||||||
Anxiety (scale: responses of 4 to 20, with higher scores indicating greater anxiety) | Low anxiety (score of 5 or 6) | 1041 | 300 (49.9) | 191 (43.4) | χ2 = 4.32, p = 0.04 | 608 | 348 (57.2) | 0.37 (68.4) |
High anxiety (score of ≥ 7) | 301 (50.1) | 249 (56.6) | 260 (42.8) |
Appendix 4 Protocol
List of abbreviations
- IPQ-R
- Revised Illness Perceptions Questionnaire
- NIHR
- National Institute for Health Research
- STAI-6
- Six-Item State–Trait Anxiety Inventory