The impact of policing and homelessness on violence experienced by women who sell sex in London: a modelling study

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This page provides information about a publication describing research funded by the Public Health Research programme under award number 15/55/58, which has been published in a third-party journal. For information about copyright and reproduction of the original publication, please see the publisher’s website.

Publication

Walker JG, Elmes J, Grenfell P, Eastham J, Hill K, Stuart R, et al. The impact of policing and homelessness on violence experienced by women who sell sex in London: a modelling study. Sci Rep 2024;14:8191. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-44663-w

Abstract

Street-based sex workers experience considerable homelessness, drug use and police enforcement, making them vulnerable to violence from clients and other perpetrators. We used a deterministic compartmental model of street-based sex workers in London to estimate whether displacement by police and unstable housing/homelessness increases client violence. The model was parameterized and calibrated using data from a cohort study of sex workers, to the baseline percentage homeless (64%), experiencing recent client violence (72%), or recent displacement (78%), and the odds ratios of experiencing violence if homeless (1.97, 95% confidence interval 0.88–4.43) or displaced (4.79, 1.99–12.11), or of experiencing displacement if homeless (3.60, 1.59–8.17). Ending homelessness and police displacement reduces violence by 67% (95% credible interval 53–81%). The effects are non-linear; halving the rate of policing or becoming homeless reduces violence by 5.7% (3.5–10.3%) or 6.7% (3.7–10.2%), respectively. Modelled interventions have small impact with violence reducing by: 5.1% (2.1–11.4%) if the rate of becoming housed increases from 1.4 to 3.2 per person-year (Housing First initiative); 3.9% (2.4–6.9%) if the rate of policing reduces by 39% (level if recent increases had not occurred); and 10.2% (5.9–19.6%) in combination. Violence reduces by 26.5% (22.6–28.2%) if half of housed sex workers transition to indoor sex work. If homelessness decreased and policing increased as occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the impact on violence is negligible, decreasing by 0.7% (8.7% decrease-4.1% increase). Increasing housing and reducing policing among street-based sex workers could substantially reduce violence, but large changes are needed.

Funding

This publication was funded by the Public Health Research programme as a part of award number 15/55/58.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-44663-w